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A World Health Organization (WHO) official made a dire prediction about the Ebola outbreak today. Christopher Dye, director of strategy in the WHO Director General’s office, stated in a media interview "If we make a simple projection on what has happened over the last, say, 10 weeks ... and make a projection forward, then what we're faced with is not hundreds of cases a week, which is what we see at the moment, but thousands of cases a week going into next month.” Based on WHO data, graphing the number of new Ebola cases for each of the last 10 weeks does show the increasing rate of cases each week. After applying a trend line to the data, week number 39 starting on September 21, 2014 appears to be the week when the 1000-cases-per-week milestone will be passed (see graph below). Given the reporting delays in case numbers, this milestone may not be confirmed until a week or two later.  While media pundits like round numbers and milestones to emphasize talking points, there is ...

As of August 29, 2014, six countries from Africa are currently reporting confirmed Ebola cases. See map below. Democratic Republic of the Congo The DRC has reported a Zaire ebolaovirus outbreak in province unrelated outbreak in West Africa. Forty-two confirmed, probable, and suspected Ebola cases have been reported. link Situation: currently under control Guinea According to the World Health Organization (WHO) on August 28, 2014, a minimum of 648 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola have been reported from Guinea. link Situation: is not under control Liberia According to WHO as of August 28, 2014, a minimum of 1378 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola have been reported from Liberia. link Situation: is not under control Nigeria According to WHO as of August 28, 2014, 17 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola have been reported from Nigeria. All appear to have been linked to one imported case from Liberia. link Situation: currently under c...

In an upcoming article in Emerging Infectious Diseases, researchers are reporting that a coronavirus sample from a bat in South Africa is currently the closest match to the  MERS-CoV that has infected more than 90 people around the world since 2012. [1] The sample, PML/2011 , was collected from a female Neoromicia zuluensis bat in 2011.   The genus Neoromicia is included in the Vespertilionidae bat family.   Because this sample was collected before the human outbreak, the authors suggest that MERS-CoV may have originated in bat populations in eastern or southern Africa and spread to the Arabian Peninsula. This new development means that surveillance for human MERS-CoV cases need to be expanded beyond the Arabian Peninsula into Africa as well.   Additional coronavirus research on Vespertilionidae bats in Kenya and surrounding countries is urgently needed.   [1] Ithete NL, Stoffberg S, Corman VM, Cottontail VM, Richards LR, Schoeman MC, et al. Close relative ...