How will we know when the number of Ebola infections starts to decline?
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), three West African countries continue to experience intense transmission of Ebola. More than 16,000 cases of Ebola have been reported from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in the past several months since the outbreak started earlier this year ( link ). There is some evidence that the rate of new Ebola infections in these countries is not growing as fast as previously estimated which is good news. The WHO situation report published on November 26, 2014 ( link ) states “Case incidence is stable in Guinea, stable or declining in Liberia, but may still be increasing in Sierra Leone”. However, there is great uncertainty over the quality of the reporting data emanating from West Africa on this Ebola outbreak. Also, based on the fluctuating numbers of newly reported cases in each of these three countries, it is difficult to assess the increases or decreases in the incidence of cases in these three countries. Assuming that the case numbers r...