Comparing WHO and CDC Projections of Ebola Cases in the Future
Through October 12, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported more than 8900 cases of Ebola since this epidemic began ( link ). The outbreak is currently out of control in three countries in West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The graph below depicts the timeline of the growth of the cumulative number of total cases reported by each of these countries. The overall cumulative Ebola case total time series can be fitted to an exponential growth curve to project the total number of cases going into the future. The WHO data indicate that by January 2015 there will be almost 45,000 Ebola cases as shown in the graph below. There is no doubt now that this outbreak will not be contained in West Africa by the end of December. How many future cases of Ebola will there be is difficult to predict. WHO has noted on several occasions that the officially reported numbers under represent...