faulker024

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), three West African countries continue to experience intense transmission of Ebola. More than 16,000 cases of Ebola have been reported from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in the past several months since the outbreak started earlier this year ( link ). There is some evidence that the rate of new Ebola infections in these countries is not growing as fast as previously estimated which is good news. The WHO situation report published on November 26, 2014 ( link ) states “Case incidence is stable in Guinea, stable or declining in Liberia, but may still be increasing in Sierra Leone”. However, there is great uncertainty over the quality of the reporting data emanating from West Africa on this Ebola outbreak. Also, based on the fluctuating numbers of newly reported cases in each of these three countries, it is difficult to assess the increases or decreases in the incidence of cases in these three countries. Assuming that the case numbers r...

Through October   12, 2014, the World Health Organization   (WHO) has reported more than   8900 cases of Ebola since this epidemic began   ( link ).   The outbreak is currently out of control in three countries in West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.   The graph below depicts the timeline of the growth of the   cumulative number of total cases reported by   each of these countries.     The overall cumulative Ebola case total time series can be fitted to an exponential growth curve to project the total number of cases going into the future. The WHO data indicate that by January   2015 there will be almost 45,000 Ebola cases as shown in the graph below.   There is no doubt now that this outbreak will not be contained in West Africa by the end of December.   How many future cases of Ebola will there be is difficult to predict. WHO has noted on several occasions that the officially reported numbers under represent...

The number of Ebola infections in West Africa continues to increase at an alarming rate ( link ). As the official international public health agency, the World Health Organization (WHO) is tasked with tracking and reporting on infectious diseases around   the world.   As of October   14, 2014 the WHO has reported more than 8900 Ebola cases from the three West Africa nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where the Ebola outbreak has not yet been contained ( link ) . Below is a chart showing the continued rising number of new cases by week number in these three countries.   The data in the chart is based on official WHO data through October 12, 2014 ( link ).   A quote from Dr. Bruce Aylward,   a WHO spokesperson ,  indicates that by mid December 2014 between 5,000 to 10,000 new weekly Ebola cases could reported in the three West African countries   ( link ) . The next graph   below shows the temporal progression of the increases in ne...

The Ebola epidemic in the three West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone continues to grow. As depicted in the graph below,  there have been erratic increases in the number of new Ebola cases in these counties since week number 20 (starting May 11, 2014). The next graph below, based on the average number of new Ebola cases per week, indicates that the longer term statistical trend in the number of cases is continued exponential increase. The variability in case data from these three countries for week numbers 37 and 38 suggests that local public health officials in these countries can no longer accurately track and count Ebola cases.  Without international support there is no reason to expect that the infection rate will decline any time soon in these countries. Graph notes: The data used in this graph are derived from World Health Organization and are current through September 16, 2014.  Only cases from the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra...

In a previous post ( Ebola is not yet under control in any West African country ), I criticized an article that suggested that Ebola infections were declining in several countries in West Africa because the effective reproductive rate was less than 1.  The graph below depicts the number of new weekly infections in the three West African countries (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone).  Cumulatively, the number of Ebola infections is continuing to grow. The World Health Organization has indicated today ( link ) that these countries have widespread intense transmission of Ebola.  Graph notes: The data used in this graph are derived from World Health Organization and are current through August 31, 2014. Graph notes: Only cases from the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are used in this graph. The cases from Nigeria are not included in the week totals, but would not appreciably affect the projected rate of growth of new cases. All data are from WHO.

In a recent article entitled Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa , Christian L. Althaus, a post-doctoral research fellow at Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern, provides an optimistic and unrealistic assessment of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. In the abstract, Althaus implies that the Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and Sierra Leone were under control by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. Elsewhere in the text he contradicts the abstract and states: "This results in a different decrease of the effective reproduction number, Re, after the outbreaks started in each country [ Guinea. Liberia, Sierra Leone ]. While Re dropped below unity in Guinea and Sierra Leone by end-August 2014, the model suggests that control interventions were not successful in reducing Re in Liberia." Based on the World Health Organization (WHO) comments that the number of Ebola cases are grossly und...

As of August 29, 2014, six countries from Africa are currently reporting confirmed Ebola cases. See map below. Democratic Republic of the Congo The DRC has reported a Zaire ebolaovirus outbreak in province unrelated outbreak in West Africa. Forty-two confirmed, probable, and suspected Ebola cases have been reported. link Situation: currently under control Guinea According to the World Health Organization (WHO) on August 28, 2014, a minimum of 648 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola have been reported from Guinea. link Situation: is not under control Liberia According to WHO as of August 28, 2014, a minimum of 1378 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola have been reported from Liberia. link Situation: is not under control Nigeria According to WHO as of August 28, 2014, 17 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola have been reported from Nigeria. All appear to have been linked to one imported case from Liberia. link Situation: currently under c...