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Based on illness onset dates from January through the end of November 2016, China officially reported about 115 human cases H7N9 infection. Over the course of several days in early January 2017, China notified the World Health Organization of more than 100 additional human cases of H7N9 presumably having been infected in December 2016. It appears that almost as many people were infected in December as all of the preceding months in 2016. The graph below shows the distribution of H7N9 cases by onset date where available and then by reporting date. The graph clearly shows the large increases in the number of infected individual reported recently. Should this increase be a cause for alarm? Increases in human cases of avian influenza always increase the risk for sustained human to human transmission of the disease. Reviewing the minimal data that is available for the 107 recent cases reported by China, some observations can be made. About 36% of these new cases are female and 67% are male...

On January 24 th ,   I posted a graph plotting the growth rate of H7N9 cases in China. Based on the trend (link), I estimated that between 30-40 cases of H7N9 would be reported in the coming weeks. Using current data for onset dates (through February 4, 2014), an updated plot indicates a total of 39 H7N9 cases for both Week 4 and Week 5. More than 30 H7N9 cases (without onset dates) have already been reported for Week 6. If the number of cases continues to increase at an exponential rate, more than 100 people a week will be reported as H7N9 cases by Week 7 or Week 8.   If the rate continues at its current pace, China will be experiencing an H7N9 epidemic within the near future. Current graph of H7N9 cases through Week 5.

This blog will provide personal observations and speculations about current novel infectious diseases. When people contract an infectious disease for which they do not have any natural defense or immunity the disease is called a novel infectious disease.   Generally these infections are zoonoses [1], diseases that are transmitted between animal sources and humans. In the past decade, a number of novel infectious diseases have erupted around the world including SARS, influenza A(H5N1) [ bird flu ], and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus. In the past 12-14 months, two new diseases have jumped to humans from unknown animal sources.    Since April of 2012, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has claimed the lives of at least 30 people and infected more than 20 others in eight different countries including France, Italy, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom [2]. In the past 60-90 days, avian influenza A(H7N...