Based on illness onset dates from January through the end of November 2016, China officially reported about 115 human cases H7N9 infection. Over the course of several days in early January 2017, China notified the World Health Organization of more than 100 additional human cases of H7N9 presumably having been infected in December 2016. It appears that almost as many people were infected in December as all of the preceding months in 2016. The graph below shows the distribution of H7N9 cases by onset date where available and then by reporting date. The graph clearly shows the large increases in the number of infected individual reported recently. Should this increase be a cause for alarm? Increases in human cases of avian influenza always increase the risk for sustained human to human transmission of the disease. Reviewing the minimal data that is available for the 107 recent cases reported by China, some observations can be made. About 36% of these new cases are female and 67% are male...
Since November 2016, more than 460 human cases of H7N9 have been reported or imported from China. To put this number in perspective, confirmed cases of H7N9 were first reported in March 2013, four years ago. Of all the cases of human H7N9 infections reported to date, more than one-third (about 36%), have occurred in the last four months. This raises a concern that H7N9 is not only causing outbreaks in China but could lead to epidemics and perhaps even a pandemic. It is difficult to tabulate exactly how many H7N9 cases have occurred since November 1 of 2016, because case reporting and enumeration seem to vary among various public health reporting agencies. Media and blog reports have interpreted variation among these counts of H7N9 cases as a failure of public health officials in China to accurately track H7N9 cases, often leading to exaggerated claims of the rates of infection in China. It is possible to arrive at a close approximation of the actual number of recent cases by using dif...
The World Health Organization (WHO) has not been providing cumulative case counts of H7N9 cases in their Disease Outbreak News reports. This may be due to incomplete and inconsistent case information that has been provided to WHO by the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) of China. Perhaps the most accurate enumeration of H7N9 cases is provided by the Centre for Health Protection (CHP), Department of Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.They report "As of yesterday ( February 27, 2014 ), a total of 367 human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) have been confirmed in the Mainland, including Zhejiang (136 cases), Guangdong (81 cases), Jiangsu (42 cases), Shanghai (41 cases), Fujian (20 cases), Hunan (16 cases), Anhui (nine cases), Jiangxi (six cases), Beijing (four cases), Henan (four cases), Guangxi (three cases), Shandong (two cases), Guizhou (one case, imported from Zhejiang), Hebei (one case) and Jilin (one case).cases), Shandong (two cases), Guizhou...
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